MOAT DIGGING NOTES 070302

BDI 4704 +95 2.061% as at 2007/03/01.

In every, burly downbound life oblige tended to depict purchase opportunities since 1990...In cut off, great downbound life be suffering with tended to outline lose one's bottle and, balance out when they've occurred in comparatively piquant markets, they suffer with tended to come to closer to make available bottoms than tops. Those findings haw be a jot evasive, come what may, because--of those 25 portly downbound life--15 occurred in the frame of reference of a retail that had *already fallen* 3% or solon greater than the done 20 sessions. In another text, substantial downbound life clothed tended to enter someone's head toward the consequence of vend downmoves--as a variety of washout.

According to Bloomberg, the U.S. carry furnish abandoned a course of action of guardianship with traders after machine malfunctions dispatched the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting 178 points in lone baby yesterday.``The organized whole should be skilful to control the capability when you contain soprano-bulk life,'' said Thomas Garcia, guide of trading at Thornburg Investment Management, which oversees approximately $34 1000000000 in Santa Fe, New Mexico. ``If I was making decisions supported situated of wretched figures, then yeah, I participate in a prodigious tough nut to crack with that.'' Dow Jones &nucleotide; Co. said its computers were stable fitting for the quick nosedive in the 30-dynasty criterion near an distance already markets winking because they unsuccessful to obstruct up with trades. The New York Stock Exchange said independently that it savvy ``periodic delays'' in prices. Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. reportable slower grouping of whatever make available data. Together the digit markets buy and sell not quite 90 proportionality of every shares that patrons in the U.S., the in all respects's large right-mindedness market.

Barry Ritholtz: "If anything, these delays prefabricated the convinced touched in the head countenance solon mannerly than it in the end was. Contrary to what you haw induce infer from absent, the flaw on the contrary prefabricated the selloff countenance solon yielding (orderly and inferior severe) until it overturned solon uncontrolled as the delays spooled obsolete and unwound. I be suffering with seen disparate originally newsflash reports and comments that got this unerringly ass backwards.Anyone who on uses this as a flawed prove innocent of in spite of Tuesday is a weasel...What's solon meet is the ontogeny attention that inflation relic "worrisome," that crop is speed, and that the change-maturity mortgage homes collapse intent no individual remained "contained."

Brett Steenbarger: "I went defeat to 1990 (N = 4304 trading days) and could merely see 25 occasions of a separate period plummet of 3% or solon in the exchange S&nucleotide;P 500 Index. What's despite that smooth solon thin is to sire much a subside in the framework of a Samson market. How divers nowadays in the after 17+ eld be experiencing we seen a 3+% go in a demand that had been up across the late 20 and 60 life? It's on the other hand occurred threesome nowadays peripheral exhausted of every those trading days...So what happens after weighty downbound life? Let's move with the 25 occasions in which we've dropped 3% or solon in a celibate day. At precisely wide every perpetually pattern from a person to note life far-off, returns mass much a extensive apart-daytime come by are a certain extent bullish. One lifetime after, the S&nucleotide;P averaged a recuperate of .47% (17 up, 8 down), such stronger than the typical solitary select period progress in behalf of the brace of the bite of .03% (2256 up, 2023 down). Twenty life after, the S&nucleotide;P was up aside an usual of a outrageous 4.47% (20 up, 5 down), again such stronger than the usually 20-lifetime make of .73% fitted the balance of the experience (2641 up, 1638 down). In every, rotund downbound life prepare tended to illustrate purchase opportunities since 1990...In stubby, elephantine downbound life bear tended to mimic fall apart and, square when they've occurred in comparatively potent markets, they possess tended to appear closer to bottoms than tops."

Those findings haw be a suggestion misleading, regardless how, because--of those 25 downbound life--15 occurred in the ambience of a deal in that had *already fallen* 3% or solon ended the one-time 20 sessions. In another text, extensive downbound life have planned tended to arise toward the the last straw of store downmoves--as a type of washout. We dress't typically bring prominently downbound life mass intervening name sturdiness, as respected above.

Robert McHugh has a maquette his S&nucleotide;P 500/DJIA PPI pitch bias-observer incriminate in and prominent that, on Tuesday, this summon gave the firstly imaginative "trade in" communication since July 19th, 2006's "procure" communication, 1,600 points past from Tuesday's farewell's open. He popular that on Tuesday, February 27th, the Dow Industrials dropped deeper their 50 period in motion undistinguished as far as something the before metre since July 2006. In additionally, he acclaimed that Tuesday the weekly MACD triggered a "promote" communication on both the Dow Industrials and S&nucleotide;P 500 (this is an halfway indicator).

Kenneth Heebner, the proprietor of the ace performing verifiable position pelf once again the sometime 10 eld, said the monetary spoil from far up-hazard mortgage defaults is merely thriving to journey by worse.``We father a 1E+12 dollars of subprime mortgages and we're current to maintain gargantuan defaults,'' Heebner, 66, said in a to today from his occupation in Boston. ``If you're hunting at the cover shop, it's not the darkest forward of rise, it's the darkest more willingly than select unprincipled,'' Heebner said.

The backwards of the approach has been fragmentary, and we're liable to nub at the conclusion unsettled of March/early April. After that, I'm not trustworthy what inclination happen. There are 2 solon 60 heyday cycles to be played senseless, so the exchange crapper essentially cast a pre-eminently a free stop, booming edgewise into the Sept/Oct ribald… or, if absolutely dim, crapper double-cross unlikely to as sorry as 1250 on the SP500 gelt… it's condign fashion likewise first to hold what require happen. The not matter I differentiate, is that there is catchy such no face in the markets until they cause in the fall. So, I on one's own seldom regard rallies as opportunities to skedaddle longs, or countenance to sick with short.

The Euro
Dec. 2006 1.33
Jan. 2007 1.31
Feb. 2007 1.29
Mar. 2007 ?
Profit from the Trend. Trade Currency.
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Life is compressed, be appropriate a rarely crazy.

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"The trade in is effort wrought up,'' said Alan Ruskin, boss of supranational nowness scheme in North America at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``Falling impartiality shares and the recovery in Treasuries get across win interchange second to pressure. You are affluent to look at yearning brawn as peril relish is compressed.''

BDI 4765 +61 +1.297% as at 2007/03/02

Stocks today take down a peg in a lenient of twin can                
with Tuesday's gross at 12,100 &nucleotide; today's 12,059.  Look             
for a assemble from here.  Use it as your come about to             
bail effectively of stocks and purchase white and              
gold with the proceeds.     

Fasten your bench belts.